Predicting the value of mosaic works
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31617/2.2025(54)03Keywords:
mosaic works, market condition, value indicators, cost forecasting, financial losses.Abstract
The article describes the results of an analysis of the state of the modern world market for mosaic works and presents an algorithm for assessing the value of mosaics and financial losses from their loss or damage, which is especially relevant at present. The purpose of the article is to develop a scientifically based and effective algorithm for estimating the value of mosaic works and financial losses in the event of their loss or damage, as well as presenting examples of this work. The study is based on the hypothesis that, based on the analysis of the specific value indicators of mosaics exhibited on the open market, it is possible to develop a mathematical model for a scientifically sound and effective determination of the estimated value of mosaic works. The primary data base was arranged in the form of a table, which included information about mosaic works exhibited on the open market. The total number of mosaic works and decorative elements in the table of initial data was 108 randomly selected samples. The distribution of mosaic specific value indicators in the source database was analyzed, a regression mathematical model was created for predicting the value of mosaic works, and the pricing of abnormally expensive mosaic works was also considered. It was shown that reasoned cost forecasting does not lead to a single result, but allows it to be determined intervalically or in the form of an average (modal) value with a certain level of deviations. Moreover, the more useful information about the cultural monument is taken into account, the wider the range of predicted cost indicators. Examples of forecasting the value and calculating financial losses from the loss or damage of mosaic works are given, including an assessment of mosaics presented in the National Conservation Area "St. Sophia of Kyiv". Therefore, forecast indicators of the value of cultural monuments, based on the results of market research, can be used to determine the levels of financial losses caused to owners, as well as to the culture of Ukraine as a whole as a result of their destruction.
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