World wheat market:challenges of wartime

Abstract

Introduction. Growing grain, in particular wheat, has a long tradition, is widely deve­loped and important for ensuring the welfare of the population, meeting food needs, crea­ting jobs, making a financial profit, including due to ex­port operations.A special threat to food secu­rity at the global level is the war started by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which has traditionally been a supplier of wheat to many countries.
Problem. Due to the significant planned level of food wheat exports, high demand for it in the domestic market, price difference com­pared to feed, uneven quality due to weather conditions, it is likely to increase prices for processed products at the national level, reduce their consumer quality. The military aggression of the Russian Federation, the hostilities taking place on a large territory of Ukraine, threaten the sowing campaign of 2022 and, as a result, food security.
The aim of the workis a comprehensive analysis of the state of the international and national wheat grain market, identification of the main trends and prospects for its further development, in particular in the context of hos­tilities in Ukraine.
Methods. General scientific methods of ana­lysis and synthesis, comparison, isolation, gene­ralization and the resulting systematization of the studied material are used.
Results. The dynamics and structure of grain production were studied, on the basis of which it was established that wheat is one of the most common. The main exporting and importing coun­tries on the international market are identified, the main development trends are analyzed. In 2022/2023MY as a result of hostilities in Ukraine, the needs of many countries, that import wheat, are under significant threat and require the search for additional suppliers of this crop. The analysis of wheat production’s productivity in Ukraine during the last 5 years wascarried out, the leading regions in production in the current marketing year were determined. As a result of war in Ukraine the volume of wheat’s harvest is expected to decline.
Conclusions. The main trends in the deve­lopment of the world wheat market are the change in most international transport links of its supply, increasing demand for this crop com­pared to finished flour, the introduction of trade quotas by many countries. The domestic wheat harvest in 2021/2022 MY became a re­cord (32.8 million tons).Despite the timely start of the grain sowing campaign in 2022, due to hostilities in many regions of Ukraine, the volume of future harvest is expected to decline. In order to meet domestic national needs, it is justified to further impose export restrictions on wheat in Ukraine.