Forecasting changes in food products quality during goods turnover

Abstract

The aim of this investigation was to develop conceptual basis and scientific grounding of methodology of forecasting changes in foodstuffs quality.
The perfect model of forecasting must contain all the information about the reasons influencing changes in products quality but it is impossible. The commonly accepted model of forecasting changes in quality for all products is also impossible to create. That is why for each product a special model or program of forecasting quality must be developed.
In order to forecast a product stability it is necessary to find out experimentally a minimal number of indices reflecting main changes in products under storage. These indices must be taken into consideration to find common predictability. Considering the fact that product decay takes place mainly in storage and it is a function of time, models must be created under kinetic laws. Accordingly very promising to our mind is the use of kinetic modeling taking into account critical parameter of optimization.
The object of theoretical and analytical study is conceptual basis of the methodology of forecasting changes in foodstuffs quality.
Having applied the rules of systematic and complex method of standardization and the theory of optimization and science of nutrition and also taking into consideration specific character of water biological resources and technological processes of their production we reasonably determined five constructive principles of forming the quality of products from water biological resources: balance of components; adequacy; complexity; orderliness; optimization.
According to analytical and experimental study the optimization of nutritious and biological value of fish and plant products was carried out in two stages: optimization of the recipe by the main organic and leptic, physical and chemical indices; and the determination of the rational quality content of plant additives; chosing best temperatures; forecasting changes in quality and identification of storage terms.
The scheme of modeling functional compositions to forecast quality was formulated and realized on the basis of theoretical and experimental research. The conducted analysis points to the expediency of using the methods of mathematical modeling on the basis of the obtained in the result of commodity expertise data and also on the basis of research and experience in producing and storing products. Forecasts determined by modeling enable to assess quality changes depending on every variable factor. The offered models are worth using for foodstuffs, the main parameter of whose storage is temperature.