Resilience of the external sector of international activity of Ukraine
Keywords:
stability of the system, the external sector, national economy, shock influences, export, import.Abstract
Background. The influence of the external sector on the national economy is realized through the movement of goods and services, labor, capital. Achieving the effective development of the external sector is one of the conditions for ensuring the stability of the national economy. The impact of globalization processes and the significant openness of the Ukrainian economy make it necessary to assess the level of stability of the external sector.
The review of scientific sources. Ukrainian researchers and economists are actively studying the stability of the external sector. However, stability of the external sector requires further study.
The aim of the study is to assess the level of stability of the external sector, which will justify ways to increase its level of resilience.
Materials and methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research are general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge, the application of which allowed to achieve the set goal. The information base of the study is presented by the works of Ukrainian and foreign scholars and statistical data.
Results. Based on the analysis of the indicators of stability of the external sector, we will determine the main shock effects that took place in 2008–2016 and influenced the dynamics of the above-discussed indicators: nominal shocks: reduction of official reserves; growth of external debt; real shocks: reduction of GDP and volume of goods turnover in the country; shocks of demand: reduction of domestic investment of the economy; deficit of foreign trade and balance of payments; Shock offers: reducing the domestic market and increasing dependence on imports. The sensitivity of the external sector to the effect of the above-mentioned shock influences for the period of 2008–2016 was high. The shock influences quickly spread and multiplied in the external sector and in the economy as a whole.
Conclusion. The level of stability of the external sector of Ukraine is unsatisfactory. Only two of the eleven indicators corresponded to the 2008–2016 threshold: the country's international reserves in the months of import (excluding 2014) and the level of export dependence on GDP. All other indicators have characterized the high level of sensitivity of the external sector to shock effects and its inability to adapt, to recover, to counteract in the long run. Prospects for further research in this regard are related to the justification of mechanisms for ensuring the resilience of the external sector.
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