Defining the conditions for the formation of international production networks

Abstract

Background. Modern international production networks refer to complex weakly formalized systems that function in conditions of considerable uncertainty caused by the constant dynamic transformation of the world economy, and thus of incompleteness of knowledge and fuzzy description, as well as of the existing obstacles and measurement errors. World practice shows that ina significant number of cases, a thorough study of such systems based on traditional (deterministic or static) modeling becomes ineffective and requires the development of new approaches to the description of the formation and operation of international production networks (IPNs). One of these approaches can be based on the use of fuzzy clustering method based on artificial intelligence, which will provide the opportunity to determine what is fundamental for creating the conditions for integration in the IPNs, taking into account the level of development and the position of the country in the world economy, as well as the dynamic impact of global reproduction transformations.
Analysis of recent research and publications. The analysis of latest research shows that the chosen topic is the subject of attention ofa wide range of foreign and Ukrainian scholars. But, while respecting the undeniable achievements of economic thought, it is worth noting that the importance of transformational changes in the functioning of IPNs, the interdependence of the strategies for including countries into them and the models of their economic growth requirea more thorough development of the methodology for studying the conditions for the formation of IPNs.
The aim of the study is to based ona practical-oriented comprehensive analytical study of the comparative conditions for the formation of IPNs in the twenty-first century.
Materials and methods. As the main mathematical apparatus, methods of fuzzy clustering and classification using artificial intelligence were used, which allowed to determine the interrelations between markers that characterize the global imperatives of the development of IPNs. Also, general scientific approaches and methods of modern research based on fundamental theoretical and methodological developments of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of transdisciplinary analysis and synthesis, general theory of systems, analysis, synthesis and optimization in the field of international production and commodity-marketing cooperation are used in the work.
Results. The article assesses the conditions for the formation of international production networks. The use of fuzzy clustering method based on artificial intelligence is substantiated. According to the results of analyzing 35 countries, 6 clusters were obtained for 9 indicators: the first (initial), the second (progressive), the third (medial), the fourth (main), the fifth (leading) and the sixth (advanced). It is determined that countries witha higher level of technological development are leaders in the formation of IPNs. Asa result of the calculations, Ukraine got to the first cluster(initial) along with other countries of the world. But in the past 3 years, only Vietnam and Cambodia remained Ukraine's neighbors. Other countries moved to the second cluster (progressive) through the implementation of an effective government policyaimed at improving the indicators ofIPN formation. By using classification analysis, the rules for assigninga country toa particular cluster were obtained, where the global innovation index, the number of new enterprises created by FDI, the index of ease of doing business and the outflow of FDI were the most important factors.
Conclusion. As the result of comparing the requirements for a country's membership in the second cluster and the actual values of Ukraine’s indicators in 2016, it has been concluded that, judging by the most important indicator of belonging to a certain cluster, Ukraine is almost ready for transitioning to the second (progressive) cluster. Moreover, when the transition conditions are reached, it is necessary to take into account the constant transformation of other countries of the world and accordingly support economic development in this direction.