Intensity of hybrid threats to national economies

Abstract

Background. In the context of growing tendencies to hybridize interstate conflicts, hybrid threats become especially important, which, in contrast to direct military threats, are difficult to identify and have their own logic of emergence and escalation. The hidden nature of hybrid aggression and the focus on the most vulnerable parties necessitate a proactive response of the object state based on a thorough assessment of the potential impact of hybrid confrontation on the development of the national economy.
The aim of the article isto substantiate the criteria for the intensity of the impact of hybrid threats on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression.
Materials and methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to determine the relationship of basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of the intensity of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy; method of graphical modeling – to visualize the dynamics of escalation of the destructive effects of hybrid threats. The research was performed on the basisof scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services.
Results. It is substantiated that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of their acquisition of signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, mostly of a non-military nature. It is proved that the high destructive potential of hybrid threats requires the definition of criteria for the intensity of their impact on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. The author's interpretation of the relationship between the basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes, which are arranged by the level of escalation in the following order: potential danger, potential threat, real threat, risk situation, real danger. Based on the definition of the specifics of hybrid threats, their key characteristics are systematized and the destructive impact on the national economy is structured. It is substantiated that the generalizing characteristics of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy should be recognized as the level of its intensity, which is determined by the probability of the threat realization and potential losses. It is proved that the escalation of hybrid threats to economically weak and vulnerable states to the level of real danger is almost inevitable if their interests conflict with the ambitions of leading geopolitical actors.
Conclusion. Interval assessment of the criteria for the intensity of hybrid threats allows structuring their destructive impact on the national economy from the minimum (potential danger) to the maximum (real danger) level of escalation. The structuring of the destructive impact of hybrid threats creates a basis for assessing the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression depending on the level of their intensity and overcoming the negative consequences for the economy of the state-object of hybrid aggression.