Methods of forecasting the evolution of the security environment
Keywords:security environment, uncertainty, forecasting, military-political conflict, evolution, escalation, threat, risk, factor analysis.
Introduction. A defining feature of the modern security environment is a high degree of variability and unpredictability, which leads to the emergence and escalation of new security threats at the national, regional and global levels.
Problem. Unprecedented challenges to the security environment of Ukraine and the world in general due to the military aggression of the russian federation demonstrate the limited prognostic potential of methods based on the extrapolation of the accumulated experience of military and political conflicts, and do not take into account the escalation of security threats. This actualizes the problem of analysis of forecasting tools in view of their suitability for the formation of realistic scenarios of the evolution of the security environment in conditions of global uncertainty.
The aim of the article is to determine the prerequisites for the effective use of methods for predicting the evolution of the security environment in the face of global challenges.
Methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis and graphic modelling are applied.
Results. Forecasting methods are systematized from the point of view of their suitability for the formation of realistic scenarios of the evolution of the security environment in conditions of global uncertainty and escalation of military-political conflicts. Advantages and limitations in the application of formalized and informal methods are determined. It is substantiated that a significant limitation of the use of informal methods is their basis on the extrapolation of trends, which may hinder the identification of new, previously unrecorded points of bifurcation of military-political conflicts. An approach to structuring the destructive impact of security threats is proposed depending on the probability of their realization and potential economic losses.
Conclusions. The methods of analysing self-organizing systems and factor analysis have a high prognostic potential. Effective use of the method of factor analysis requires a clear understanding of the ontology of risk factors in order to timely identify the conditions for its development into a real threat. Adherence to the proposed approach to the structuring of the destructive impact of security threats makes it possible to assess the risks of their realization for the state - the object of military aggression and to prevent the transition to the next level of escalation.
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