World wheat market:challenges of wartime




grain cultures, wheat, inter­national, domestic market, export, import, flour, export restrictions


Introduction. Growing grain, in particular wheat, has a long tradition, is widely deve­loped and important for ensuring the welfare of the population, meeting food needs, crea­ting jobs, making a financial profit, including due to ex­port operations.A special threat to food secu­rity at the global level is the war started by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which has traditionally been a supplier of wheat to many countries.
Problem. Due to the significant planned level of food wheat exports, high demand for it in the domestic market, price difference com­pared to feed, uneven quality due to weather conditions, it is likely to increase prices for processed products at the national level, reduce their consumer quality. The military aggression of the Russian Federation, the hostilities taking place on a large territory of Ukraine, threaten the sowing campaign of 2022 and, as a result, food security.
The aim of the workis a comprehensive analysis of the state of the international and national wheat grain market, identification of the main trends and prospects for its further development, in particular in the context of hos­tilities in Ukraine.
Methods. General scientific methods of ana­lysis and synthesis, comparison, isolation, gene­ralization and the resulting systematization of the studied material are used.
Results. The dynamics and structure of grain production were studied, on the basis of which it was established that wheat is one of the most common. The main exporting and importing coun­tries on the international market are identified, the main development trends are analyzed. In 2022/2023MY as a result of hostilities in Ukraine, the needs of many countries, that import wheat, are under significant threat and require the search for additional suppliers of this crop. The analysis of wheat production’s productivity in Ukraine during the last 5 years wascarried out, the leading regions in production in the current marketing year were determined. As a result of war in Ukraine the volume of wheat’s harvest is expected to decline.
Conclusions. The main trends in the deve­lopment of the world wheat market are the change in most international transport links of its supply, increasing demand for this crop com­pared to finished flour, the introduction of trade quotas by many countries. The domestic wheat harvest in 2021/2022 MY became a re­cord (32.8 million tons).Despite the timely start of the grain sowing campaign in 2022, due to hostilities in many regions of Ukraine, the volume of future harvest is expected to decline. In order to meet domestic national needs, it is justified to further impose export restrictions on wheat in Ukraine.

Author Biographies

Dmytro ANTIUSHKO, State University of Trade and Economics

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of Commodity Science, Safety and Quality Management

Nataliia SHAPOVALOVA, State University of Trade and Economics

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of Commodity Science, Safety and Quality Management

Yuliia HONCHAR, State University of Trade and Economics

Doctor of Philosophy (Production and Technologies), Sen. lecturer at the Department of Technologies and Organization of Restaurant Business


Top Wheat Producing Countries. [in English].

TOP-10 stran-proizvoditelej pshenicy v 2020/21 MG. [in Russian].

Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrai’ny № 1379 vid 05.12.2007, zi zminamy ta dopovnennjamy, "Dejaki pytannja prodovol’choi’ bezpeky" [Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine № 1379 of 05.12.2007, as amended, "Some issues of food security"]. [in Ukrainian].

Minagropolityky pidpysalo z uchasnykamy zernovogo rynku dodatok do Memorandumu pro vzajemorozuminnja [Ministry of Agrarian Policy has signed the appendix to Memorandum of Mutual Understanding with grain market participants]. [in Ukrainian].

Golodu ne bude. Ukrai’na povnistju zabezpechena pshenyceju – Minagropolityky [There will be no famine. Ukraine is fully supplied with wheat – Ministry of Agrarian Policy]. [in Ukrainian].

Boroshnomely ta hlibopekari pojasnyly prychynu vidmovy uzgodzhuvaty zernovyj memorandum [Flour millers and bakers have explained the reason for refusing to agree on a grain memorandum]. [in Ukrainian].

Golova profil’noi’ asociacii’ rozpoviv pro golovni trendy v boroshnomel’nij galuzi [The head of the profile association told about the main trends in the flour milling industry]. [in Ukrainian].

Gutiérrez-Moya, E., Adenso-Díaz, B., & Lozano, S. (2021). Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network. Food Security,13, 113-128 [in English].

Patterson W. WASDE update: Wheat market continues to tighten. [in English].

Enghiad, A., Ufer, D., Countryman, A., & Thilmany, D. (2017). An overview of global wheat market fundamentals in an era of climate concerns. International Journal of Agronomy, 19, 1-15 [in English].

Svanidze, M., & Duric, I. (2021). Global wheat market dynamics: what is the role of the EU and the black sea wheat exporters? Agriculture, 11(8), 799 [in English].

Svanidze, M., Götz, L., Djuric, I., & Glauben, T. (2019). Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Food Security, 13, 733-752 [in English].

Cheremisina, S. G. (2021). Rynok zernovyh kul’tur v Ukrai’ni: analiz suchasnogo stanu ta perspektyvy rozvytku [Grain market in Ukraine: analysis of the current state and development prospects]. Ekonomika APK – Economics of agro-industrial complex, 2, 48-58 [in Ukrainian].

Il’chuk, M. M., Konoval, I. A., Baranovs’ka, O. D., & Jevtushenko, V. D. (2019). Rozvytok rynku zerna v Ukrai’ni ta jogo stabilizacija [Development of the grain market in Ukraine and its stabilization]. Ekonomika APK – Economics of agro-industrial complex, 4, 29-38 [in Ukrainian].

Mesel’-Veseljak, V. Ja. (2018). Vyrobnyctvo zernovyh kul’tur v Ukrai’ni: potencijni mozhlyvosti [Grain crops production in Ukraine: potential opportunities]. Ekonomika APK – Economics of agro-industrial complex, 5, 5-14 [in Ukrainian].

Lagodijenko, V. V., Bogdanov, O. O., & Lagodijenko, V. V. (2019). Misce ta rol’ Ukrai’ny na svitovomu rynku pshenyci [Ukraine’s place and role in the world wheat market]. Ukrai’ns’kyj zhurnal prykladnoi’ ekonomiky – Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics, 3, 297-308 [in Ukrainian].

Galunec’, N. (2019). Misce ukrai’ns’kogo agroeksportu na svitovomu prodovol’chomu rynku [The place of Ukrainian agro-export on the world food market]. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal. (Vol. 5), 4, 79-94 [in Ukrainian].

Pulses are key to food security, healthy diets and sustainable agri-food systems, says FAO. [in English].

Grain Market Report. International Grains Council. [in English].

Cereals market situation. [in English].

USDA scales down global wheat output, ending stocks projection for 2021-22. S & P global. [in English].

IGC put world grain production record high in 2021/22. [in English].

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. [in English].

Іndia to see record wheat harvest in 2021-22 amid higher export prospects. S & P global. [in English].

Z pochatku 2021/2022 MR Ukrai’na eksportuvala blyz’ko 29,4 mln. ton zerna [Since the beginning of the 2021/2022 MY, Ukraine has exported about 29.4 million tons of grain]. [in Ukrainian].

Commodities 2022: Asian wheat buyers in a pickle on Australian quality downgrades. S & P global. [in English].

Here is Why Turkey and Iran Grain Imports Surged in August 2021. AgFlow. [in English].

Svitovyj rynok zernovyh kul’tur v 2021/22 MR: v ochikuvanni vysokoi’ konkurencii’ – Platts [World grain market in 2021/22 MY: in anticipation of high competition - Platts]. APK Inform. [in Ukrainian].

WHEAT MARKET – GROWTH, TRENDS, COVID-19 IMPACT, AND FORECASTS (2021 – 2026). Mordor Intelligence. [in English].

Azerbaijan extends subsidies to flour producers and wheat VAT exemption. [in English].

Grain export restrictions taking toll. [in English].

Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky [State Statistics Service]. [in Ukrainian].

106 mln tonn: V Ukrai’ni zibrano rekordnyj vrozhaj zernovyh, zernobobovyh ta olijnyh kul’tur, – Roman Leshhenko [106 million tons: Record harvest of grain, legumes and oilseeds has been harvested in Ukraine, – Roman Leshchenko]. [in Ukrainian].

Ukrai’na zibrala rekordnyj urozhaj zernovyh, zernobobovyh ta olijnyh kul’tur – ministr agropolityky [Ukraine has harvested a record harvest of grain – legumes and oilseeds - Minister of Agrarian Policy]. INTERFAX-Ukrai’na – INTERFAX-Ukraine. [in Ukrainian].

Dynamika zboru pshenyci v Ukrai’ni za ostanni 10 rokiv – grafika [Dynamics of wheat harvest in Ukraine for the last 10 years – graph]. [in Ukrainian].

Valovyj zbir zerna v Ukrai’ni perevyshhyv 84 mln tonn [Gross grain harvest in Ukraine exceeded 84 million tons]. APK Inform. [in Ukrainian].

Boroshnomely proty eksporteriv zerna: hto komu ne daje spekty hliba [Flour millers against grain exporters: who does not give the possibility to somebody to bake bread]. [in Ukrainian].

Antjushko, D. (2017). Osoblyvosti standartyzacii’ v Ukrai’ni ta sviti zerna pshenyci [Features of standardization of wheat grain in Ukraine and the world]. Mizhnarodnyj naukovo-praktychnyj zhurnal "Tovary i rynky" – International Scientific and Practical Journal "Commodities and Markets", 1(23), 90-101 [in Ukrainian].

Vrozhaj onlajn 2021 [Harvest online 2021]. [in Ukrainian].

V potochnomu sezoni u sviti ochikujet’sja zbil’shennja obsjagiv torgivli boroshnom – ekspert [In the current season, the world is expected to increase the volume of trade in flour – expert]. Agravery. [in Ukrainian].



How to Cite

ANTIUSHKO Д. ., SHAPOVALOVA Н. ., & HONCHAR Ю. . (2022). World wheat market:challenges of wartime. NTERNATIONAL CIENTIFIC-RACTICAL OURNAL OMMODITIES ND ARKETS, 41(1), 4–18.