External trade of Ukraine: research methodology

Abstract

Background. The current stage of development of foreign trade activity of Ukraine is under the influence of unexpected and unpredictable non-economic factors. Finding the tools of analysis and forecasting of the dynamics and structure of foreign trade of Ukraine which is adequate to current international instability is reasonable.
The analysis of recent research and publications. In the works of many domestic scholars the structure and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine during different years is researched. The spectrum of used methods varies from purely descriptive approach to formalized methods of economic and mathematical modeling.
The aim of the research is the consideration of methodical approaches of domestic scholars to the analysis of foreign trade of Ukraine in the context of their suitability for the receiving of long-term accurate forecasts.
Materials and methods. For the grouping of approaches to the research of the structure and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine the methods of analysis and synthesis are used; for the test of the suitability of deterministic models of the long-term prediction of foreign trade of Ukraine the method of econometric modeling is used. The research is conducted on the basis of the materials of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine.
Results. The methods and approaches used by domestic scholars for the analysis of the structure and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine by the criterion of the use of quantitative research methods are grouped in non-formalized (qualitative) and formalized (quantitative). The suitability of the use of non-formalized analysis in combination with formalized research methods that will increase the reasonableness of forecasts of the dynamics and structure of foreign trade of Ukraine is grounded. The peculiarities of the application of formalized (quantitative methods) in the context of the research of the structure and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine are considered, namely: the methods of foreign trade balance analysis and international comparisons, the methods of structural, matrix and statistical analysis, the methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The limitations of the suitability of deterministic models for long-term prognostication of foreign trade of Ukraine are shown. The reasonableness of the use of stochastic modeling to ensure the validity of long-term forecasts of the dynamics and structure of foreign trade of Ukraine is grounded.
Conclusion. Stochastic modeling is a flexible tool of analysis and prognostication of foreign trade, the use of which should be based on the results of the factor analysis of the current economic and geopolitical situation. The development of stochastic model of foreign trade of Ukraine and its verification can be considered a perspective direction of further researches.