Devaluation of hryvnia in the system of regulationof foreign trade in Ukraine

Abstract

Backgrоund. Currency devaluation significantly affects the export / import price ratio, causing a change in the competitiveness of national exports, its efficiency, and its balance with imports. At the same time, the proportionality of these changes does not coincide with changes in the exchange rate due to the effect of certain macro and microeconomic factors. Thus, there is a problem of the connection between exchange rates and trade, which directly affects the effectiveness of using currency quotes as a tool for regulating trade imbalances.
The analysis of recent studies and publications has shown that despite the existenceof certain scientific achievements, an important scientific and practical problem remains unresolved as to the impact of the exchange rate of hryvnia devaluation on the improvement of Ukraine's trade balance, increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of its exports.
Thе aіm of the paper is based on the analysis of the sensitivity of foreign trade to the fluctuations of the exchange rate of hryvnia for 2008-2018 and determining the expediency of using the hryvnia devaluation policy by the National Bank of Ukraine as an instrument for improving the country's trade balance and increasing its competitiveness.
Matеrіals and mеthоds. In the process of research the methods of comparison, graphical, tabular, economic and statistical methods were used.
Results. The scientific hypothesis about the existence of the gap between the devaluation of the exchange rate and the increase in the balance of trade balance of Ukraine was set up and its empirical verification was carried out. According to the results of this study, it was found that during 2008–2018, the devaluation of the hryvnia more than quadrupled. At the same time, the size of the trade balance deficit in the corresponding period decreased only by 1.8 times due to the lack of export growth and a slight decrease in imports. The reasons for the disproportionately low reaction of the foreign trade to the devaluation of the hryvnia are: the high level of the import component in national exports as a result of the participation of Ukrainian enterprises in value added chains, which reduces its efficiency in case of devaluation of hryvnia; a weak financial sector that limits the ability of exporters to obtain loans and increase their economic activity with the depreciation of the national currency; limited demand for Ukrainian exports due to its raw material nature and low quality, which does not react to the price factor; a high level of dependence of the national economy on imports, which makes it inelastic to change prices due to currency fluctuations.
Conclusion. According to the analysis of changes in the hryvnia exchange rate during 2008–2018, it can be argued that the devaluation policy of the hryvnia is not an effective tool for improving the country's trade balance, increasing the competitiveness of national products in the international market and the efficiency of foreign trade operations due to the low foreign trade sensitivity to the hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations. All this facts greatly complicate the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine, which presents a certain threat to the prospects for its economic growth. And for this reason, continued devaluation as a conscious policy raises doubts as to its expediency.