Armeniaʼs foreign policy: between diversification and dependence

Abstract

The structural and geopolitical barriers that limit Armeniaʼs ability to shift its foreign policy away from russia toward the European Union (EU) have been studied. The relevance of this study lies in understanding why, despite recent interaction with the EU – particularly via the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) – Armenia remains strategically attached to russia. The hypothesis was tested that deep infrastructural dependence on this country, as well as institutional ties such as membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), significantly hinder Armeniaʼs foreign policy autonomy. Qualitative analysis methods of specific cases were applied using dependency theory, based on institutional texts, trade and energy data, as well as geopolitical events from 1991 to 2023. The results of the study confirm that although EU – Armenia cooperation has deepened, particularly after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the EU engagement remains mainly symbolic and non-military. Western actors do not offer reliable alternative security guarantees. At the same time, russia retains the strong deterrent capabilities through economic pressure or political influence. It is concluded that Armeniaʼs foreign policy remains structurally constrained and that a real shift away from this country, even if politically desirable, is hindered by both external and internal obstacles.