Ukraineʼs exports under martial law

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the main factors of the countryʼs development, which directly affects its main economic indicators. In the conditions of instability, which are associated with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by russia, the introduction of martial law, the blocking of the sea and other negative factors, it is important to look for alterna­tive ways of exporting, using all possible types of transport and logistics supply chains. The problem of exporting products of the agro-industrial complex is gaining special relevance, since Ukraine was the world leader in exporting this type of goods before the full-scale invasion. The blockade of Ukrainian ports and the conditions of martial law have led to a sharp increase in world prices for agricultural goods, a decrease in purchasing power and a global crisis that poses a threat to food security in the world. The purpose of this article is to define and generalize alternative logistics routes for the imple­mentation of Ukrainian exports in the conditions of martial law by studying changes in its commodity structure, geography and transport capacities. According to the results of the analysis of the commodity structure of exports and changes in the composition of the main importers of Ukrainian goods it was found that currently the products of the agro-industrial complex are its basis. As a result of the action of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the main amount of agricultural goods was exported through Ukrainian ports, and its termination poses a threat to foreign trade. New logistics routes using the capacity of all possible types of transport can become alternative options for the export of Ukrainian grain. The search for new logistics routes with the possibi­lity of using railway, road, ferry and sea modes of transport will make it possible to reach the necessa­ry volumes of exports of goods of the agro-industrial complex and reduce the risks that have formed in conditions of instability. The development of inter­modal transportation is the most alternative option from the point of view of logistics, and the use and combination of the advantages of land and water types of transport will contribute to the optimization of the logistical ways of the realization of Ukrainian exports.