Intensity of hybrid threats to national economies

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31617/zt.knute.2021(118)02

Keywords:

hybrid threat, danger, risk, destructive influence, escalation, criterion, intensity, probability.

Abstract

Background. In the context of growing tendencies to hybridize interstate conflicts, hybrid threats become especially important, which, in contrast to direct military threats, are difficult to identify and have their own logic of emergence and escalation. The hidden nature of hybrid aggression and the focus on the most vulnerable parties necessitate a proactive response of the object state based on a thorough assessment of the potential impact of hybrid confrontation on the development of the national economy.
The aim of the article isto substantiate the criteria for the intensity of the impact of hybrid threats on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression.
Materials and methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to determine the relationship of basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of the intensity of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy; method of graphical modeling – to visualize the dynamics of escalation of the destructive effects of hybrid threats. The research was performed on the basisof scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services.
Results. It is substantiated that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of their acquisition of signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, mostly of a non-military nature. It is proved that the high destructive potential of hybrid threats requires the definition of criteria for the intensity of their impact on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. The author's interpretation of the relationship between the basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes, which are arranged by the level of escalation in the following order: potential danger, potential threat, real threat, risk situation, real danger. Based on the definition of the specifics of hybrid threats, their key characteristics are systematized and the destructive impact on the national economy is structured. It is substantiated that the generalizing characteristics of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy should be recognized as the level of its intensity, which is determined by the probability of the threat realization and potential losses. It is proved that the escalation of hybrid threats to economically weak and vulnerable states to the level of real danger is almost inevitable if their interests conflict with the ambitions of leading geopolitical actors.
Conclusion. Interval assessment of the criteria for the intensity of hybrid threats allows structuring their destructive impact on the national economy from the minimum (potential danger) to the maximum (real danger) level of escalation. The structuring of the destructive impact of hybrid threats creates a basis for assessing the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression depending on the level of their intensity and overcoming the negative consequences for the economy of the state-object of hybrid aggression.

Author Biography

Nataliia KALIUZHNA, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor at the Department of World Economy

References

Thiele, R. (2016). Hybrid Threats – And how to counter them. ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security, 448, 1-12. Retrieved from https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/publications/publication.html/eeb48a96-91d3-4d69-8992-576e25cf53d9 [in English].

Weissmann, М. (2019). Hybrid warfare and hybrid threats today and tomorrow: towards an analytical framework. Journal on Baltic Security,5(1),17-26. DOI: 10.2478/jobs-2019-0002 [in English] https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2019-0002.

Bajarūnas, Е., & Keršanskas, V. (2018). Hybrid Threats: Analysis of Content, Challenges Posed and Measures to Overcome. Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, (Vol. 16), (рр. 123-170). DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2018-0006 [in English] https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0006.

Trygub, O., & Misjac', M. (2019). Fenomen gibrydnoi' vijny v ukrai'ns'kij ta zarubizhnij politologii' [The phenomenon of hybrid warfare in Ukrainian and foreign political science]. Naukovi praci. Politologija –Scientific works. Politology, (Vol. 324,Issue 312), (pp. 66-70) [in Ukrainian].

Busol, O. Ju. (2020). Fenomen gibrydnyh zagroz nacional'nij bezpeci [The phenomenon of hybrid threats to national security]. Jurydychna Ukrai'na – Legal Ukraine,4,6‑15. DOI: 10.37749/2308-9636-2020-4(208)-1 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.37749/2308-9636-2020-4(208)-1.

Martynjuk, V. (2018). Gibrydni zagrozy Ukrai'ni i suspil'na bezpeka. Dosvid JeS i Shidnogo partnerstva [Hybrid threats to Ukraine and public safety. Experience of the EU and the Eastern Partnership]. Kyi'v: Centr globalistyky Strategija ХХІ. Retrieved from https://geostrategy.org.ua/analityka/doslidzhennya/gibrydni-zagrozy-ukrayini-i-suspilna-bezpeka-dosvid-yes-i-shidnogo-partnerstva/zavantazhyty-pdf [in Ukrainian].

Akimova, L. M. (2018). Analiz gibrydnyh zagroz ekonomichnij bezpeci Ukrai'ny: mizhnarodnyj dosvid ta ukrai'ns'ki realii' [Analysis of hybrid threats to Ukraine's economic security: international experience and Ukrainian realities]. Investycii': praktyka ta dosvid –Investments: practice and experience, 22, 110-115. DOI: 10.32702/2306-6814.2018.22.110 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2018.22.110.

Aleksjejev, M. M. (2020). Metodyka kil'kisnogo ocinjuvannja informacijnyh ryzykiv iz zastosuvannjam ontologii' faktornogo analizu [Methods of quantitative assessment of information risks using the ontology of factor analysis]. Zbirnyk naukovyh prac' Centru vojenno-strategichnyh doslidzhen' Nacional'nogo universytetu oborony Ukrai'ny imeni Ivana Chernjahovs'kogo – Collection of scientific works of the Military and Strategic Research Center of the National Defense University of Ukrain enamed after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi. Kyi'v, 2 (69), 72-78. DOI: 10.33099/2304-2745/2020-2-69/72-78 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.33099/2304-2745/2020-2-69/72-78.

Telelym, V. M., Danyk, Ju. G., & Zinchenko, A. O. (2018). Model' ocinjuvannja vrazlyvostej system z krytychnoju kibernetychnoju infrastrukturoju [Vulnerability assessment model for systems with critical cyber infrastructure]. Zbirnyk naukovyh prac' Centru vojenno-strategichnyh doslidzhen' Nacional'nogo universytetu oborony Ukrai'ny imeni Ivana Chernjahovs'kogo – Collection of scientific works of the Military and Strategic Research Center of the National Defense University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi. Kyi'v, 2 (63), 63-67. DOI: 10.33099/2304-2745/2018-2-63/63-67 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.25225/fozo.v67.i2.a9.2018.

Snicarenko, P. M., Sarychev, Ju. O., & Rogov, P. D. (2014). Metodyka ocinky rivnja destruktyvnogo informacijnogo vplyvu na ob’jekty informacijnoi' infrastruktury derzhavy [Methods for assessing the level of destructive information impact on the objects of state information infrastructure]. Zbirnyk naukovyh prac' Vijs'kovogo instytutu telekomunikacij ta informatyzacii' Derzhavnogo universytetu teleko­munikacij – Collection of scientific works of the Military Institute of Telecommunications and Information Technologies of the State University of Telecommunications. Kyi'v, (Vol. 1), (pp. 88-96) [in Ukrainian].

Gryshhuk, R. V., Zhovnovatjuk, R. M., & Nosova, G. M. (2019). Gibrydni zagrozy u kiberprostori: faktory vplyvu na pryrodu vynyknennja [Hybrid threats in cyberspace: factors influencing the nature of their occurrence]. Suchasni informacijni tehnologii' u sferi bezpeky ta oborony – Modern information technologies in the field of security and defence,3 (36), 53-58. DOI: 10.33099/2311-7249/2019-36-3-53-58 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2019-36-3-53-58.

Rudnichenko, Je. M. (2013). Zagroza, ryzyk, nebezpeka: sutnist' ta vzajemozv’jazok iz systemoju ekonomichnoi' bezpeky pidpryjemstva [Threat, risk, danger: the essence and relationship with the system of economic security of the enterprise]. Ekonomika. Menedzhment. Pidpryjemnyctvo. Zbirnyk nauk. prac'. – Economics. Management. Entrepreneurship. Collection of scient. works, № 25 (І), 188-195 [in Ukrainian].

Kolesnichenko, P. T. (2017). Zagrozy, ryzyky ta nebezpeky v systemi ekonomichnoi' bezpeky pidpryjemstva [Threats, risks and dangers in the system of economic security of the enterprise]. Naukovyj visnyk Hersons'kogo derzhavnogo universytetu. Serija: Ekonomichni nauky – Scientific Bulletin of Kherson State University. Series: Economic Sciences, (Issue24, Part І), (pp. 56-59) [in Ukrainian].

Bojko, I. V. (2017). Definicii' «ryzyk», «zagroza», «nebezpeka» jak ob’jekty naukovyh doslidzhen' u naprjami ekonomichnoi' bezpeky pidpryjemstva [Definitions of «risk», «threat», «danger» as objects of scientific research in the direction of economic security of the enterprise]. Pryazovs'kyj ekonomichnyj visnyk – PryazovskyiEconomic Herald, 5 (05), 94-97 [in Ukrainian].

Olijnyk, O. V. (2016). Sutnist' derzhavnoi' polityky zabezpechennja informacijnoi' bezpeky shhodo dzherel zagroz ta inshyh bezpekogennyh chynnykiv [The essence of the state policy of information security in relation to sources of threats and other safety factors]. Jurydychnyj visnyk – Legal Bulletin, 1 (38), 71-78 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.18372/2307-9061.38.10031.

Baron, I. G. (2019). Algorytm nejtralizacii' zagroz ekonomichnij bezpeci Ukrai'ny [Algorithm for neutralizing threats to Ukraine's economic security]. Perspektyvni naprjamky rozvytku ekonomiky, obliku, finansiv ta prava: materialy Mizhnar. nauk.-prakt. konf. – Promising areas of economic development, accounting, finance and law: materials of Intern. scient. andpract. conf., 23 serpnja 2019 r. Poltava: CFEND, (Part 1), (pp. 9-10) [in Ukrainian].

Romanchyk, T. V. (2020). Nebezpeka, zagroza, ryzyk: analiz terminologichnogo aparatu teorii' ekonomichnoi' bezpeky [Danger, threat, risk: analysis of the terminological apparatus of the theory of economic security]. Ekonomichnyj visnyk NTUU «KPI» – Economic Bulletin of NTUU «KPI», 17, 257-267. DOI: 10.20535/2307-5651.17.2020.192866 [in Ukrainian] https://doi.org/10.20535/2307-5651.17.2020.192866.

Active Engagement, Modern Defense. NATO’s Strategic Concept 2010. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_82705.htm [in English].

Countering Hybrid Treats. Food-for-thought paper. Working document of the EuropeanExternal Action Service of 13.05.2015. Retrieved from https://www.statewatch.org/media/documents/news/2015/may/eeas-csdp-hybrid-threats-8887-15.pdf [in English].

Understanding Hybrid Treats. Briefing European parliamentary research service of June 2015. Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2015/564355/EPRS_ATA(2015)564355_EN.pdf [in English].

Joint communication to the European Parliament and the Council Joint Framework on countering hybrid treats. A European Union response 2016. Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52016JC0018 [in English].

Published

2021-10-13

How to Cite

KALIUZHNA Н. (2021). Intensity of hybrid threats to national economies. Foreign·trade:·economics,·finance,·law, 118(5), 33–47. https://doi.org/10.31617/zt.knute.2021(118)02

Issue

Section

WORLD ECONOMY AND TRADE